Report: Dallas-Fort Worth Housing Market Ranks Among Least Vulnerable to Economic Impact From COVID-19

The housing market in Dallas-Fort Worth is one of the least vulnerable in the U.S. to the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis, according to a new report. Three Dallas-Fort Worth counties—Dallas, Collin, and Tarrant—are ranked among the 50 least at risk in a study by online property information service Attom Data Solutions.

Researchers looked at 483 county-level housing markets around the United States to determine those more or less vulnerable to the impact of the Coronavirus pandemic.

The report shows good news for Texas: The Lone State state had 10 of the 50 least vulnerable counties overall, including Houston’s Harris Co. and Austin’s Travis Co.

10 Least Vulnerable
Texas Counties
1. Harris
2. Dallas
3. Potter
4. Midland
5. Ector
6. Travis
7. Jefferson
8. Tarrant
9. Collin
10. Brazos
Source: Attom Data Solutions

Other states with a county concentration among those less vulnerable are Wisconsin, with seven counties, and Colorado, with five counties.

Tippecanoe Co. in Indiana ranked the least vulnerable of the housing markets in the U.S.

“It’s too early to tell how much effect the Coronavirus fallout will have on different housing markets around the country. But the impact is likely to be significant from region to region and county to county,” Todd Teta, chief product officer with ATTOM Data Solutions said in a statement.

“What we’ve done is spotlight areas that appear to be more or less at risk based on several important factors.”

Most vulnerable housing markets in the U.S.

Markets that could be most affected are the Northeast, which has the largest concentration of the most at-risk counties including 14 of New Jersey’s 21 counties, and Florida, the report shows. New Jersey and Florida account for nearly half of the 50 most-vulnerable counties, Attom said. In the top 50, 21 are clustered in New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. Ten counties are in Florida.

“It looks like the Northeast is more at risk than other areas,” Teta said. “As we head into the spring home-buying season, the next few months will reveal how severe the impact will be.”

Overall, the Midwest and West fared better. Five Midwest counties among the most-vulnerable are in Illinois. Only one county in California—none in other West Coast states—and one in the Southwest ranked among the 50 most vulnerable.

Here are high-level findings from the analysis, per Attom’s release:

New Jersey and Florida have 24 of the 50 most vulnerable counties from among the 483 included in the report. The 14 counties in New Jersey include five in the New York City suburban area: Bergen, Essex, Passaic, Middlesex, and Union counties. The 10 counties in Florida are concentrated in the northern and central sections of the state, including Flagler, Lake, Clay, Hernando and Osceola counties.

New York counties among the top 50 most at risk include Rockland County, in the New York City metropolitan area; Orange County, in the Poughkeepsie metro area; Rensselaer County, in the Albany metro area; and Ulster County, west of Poughkeepsie.

Other southern counties that are in the top 50 are spread across Delaware, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana, and Virginia.

Among the counties analyzed, only two in the West and five in the Midwest (all in Illinois) rank among the top 50 most at risk from problems connected to the Coronavirus outbreak. The two western counties are Shasta County, CA, in the Redding metropolitan statistical area and Navajo County, AZ, northeast of Phoenix. The midwestern counties are McHenry County, IL; Kane County, IL; Will County, IL, and Lake County, IL, all in the Chicago metro area; and Tazewell County, IL, in the Peoria metro area.

Counties in the top 50 with a population of at least 500,000 people include Bergen, Camden, Essex, Middlesex, Ocean, Passaic and Union counties in New Jersey; Lake, Will, and Kane counties in Illinois; Delaware County, PA; Prince George’s County, MD; and Broward County, FL.

Eighteen of the 50 least at-risk counties have a population of at least 500,000, led by Harris County (Houston), TX; Dallas County, TX; King County (Seattle), WA; Tarrant County (Fort Worth), TX; and Santa Clara County, CA, in the San Jose metro area.

Counties where median prices ranging from $160,000 to $300,000 comprise 36 of the top 50 counties most vulnerable to the impact of the Coronavirus.

Counties with median home prices below $160,000 or above $300,000 make up 14 of the top 50 most vulnerable to the impact of the Coronavirus. Those with median prices below $160,000 are among the most affordable in the nation to local wage earners, while those where median prices exceed $300,000 have some homes with the highest equity and smallest foreclosure rates.

This story was updated with additional information on Apr. 8, 2020 at 10:56 a.m. The number of counties surveyed was incorrectly stated and has been corrected.